Modeling the Mistakes of Boundedly Rational Agents Within a Bayesian Theory of Mind

When inferring the goals that others are trying to achieve, people intuitively understand that others might make mistakes along the way. This is crucial for activities such as teaching, offering assistance, and deciding between blame or forgiveness. However, Bayesian models of theory of mind have generally not accounted for these mistakes, instead modeling agents as mostly optimal in achieving their goals. As a result, they are unable to explain phenomena like locking oneself out of one's house, or losing a game of chess. Here, we extend the Bayesian Theory of Mind framework to model boundedly rational agents who may have mistaken goals, plans, and actions. We formalize this by modeling agents as probabilistic programs, where goals may be confused with semantically similar states, plans may be misguided due to resource-bounded planning, and actions may be unintended due to execution errors. We present experiments eliciting human goal inferences in two domains: (i) a gridworld puzzle with gems locked behind doors, and (ii) a block-stacking domain. Our model better explains human inferences than alternatives, while generalizing across domains. These findings indicate the importance of modeling others as bounded agents, in order to account for the full richness of human intuitive psychology.Comment: Accepted to CogSci 2021. 6 pages, 5 figures. (Appendix: 1 page, 1 figure

Open Problems in DAOs

Decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are a new, rapidly-growing class of organizations governed by smart contracts. Here we describe how researchers can contribute to the emerging science of DAOs and other digitally-constituted organizations. From granular privacy primitives to mechanism designs to model laws, we identify high-impact problems in the DAO ecosystem where existing gaps might be tackled through a new data set or by applying tools and ideas from existing research fields such as political science, computer science, economics, law, and organizational science. Our recommendations encompass exciting research questions as well as promising business opportunities. We call on the wider research community to join the global effort to invent the next generation of organizations

Biclustering via optimal re-ordering of data matrices in systems biology: rigorous methods and comparative studies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The analysis of large-scale data sets via clustering techniques is utilized in a number of applications. Biclustering in particular has emerged as an important problem in the analysis of gene expression data since genes may only jointly respond over a subset of conditions. Biclustering algorithms also have important applications in sample classification where, for instance, tissue samples can be classified as cancerous or normal. Many of the methods for biclustering, and clustering algorithms in general, utilize simplified models or heuristic strategies for identifying the "best" grouping of elements according to some metric and cluster definition and thus result in suboptimal clusters.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In this article, we present a rigorous approach to biclustering, OREO, which is based on the Optimal RE-Ordering of the rows and columns of a data matrix so as to globally minimize the dissimilarity metric. The physical permutations of the rows and columns of the data matrix can be modeled as either a network flow problem or a traveling salesman problem. Cluster boundaries in one dimension are used to partition and re-order the other dimensions of the corresponding submatrices to generate biclusters. The performance of OREO is tested on (a) metabolite concentration data, (b) an image reconstruction matrix, (c) synthetic data with implanted biclusters, and gene expression data for (d) colon cancer data, (e) breast cancer data, as well as (f) yeast segregant data to validate the ability of the proposed method and compare it to existing biclustering and clustering methods.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>We demonstrate that this rigorous global optimization method for biclustering produces clusters with more insightful groupings of similar entities, such as genes or metabolites sharing common functions, than other clustering and biclustering algorithms and can reconstruct underlying fundamental patterns in the data for several distinct sets of data matrices arising in important biological applications.</p

Antimicrobial resistance among migrants in Europe: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) are rising globally and there is concern that increased migration is contributing to the burden of antibiotic resistance in Europe. However, the effect of migration on the burden of AMR in Europe has not yet been comprehensively examined. Therefore, we did a systematic review and meta-analysis to identify and synthesise data for AMR carriage or infection in migrants to Europe to examine differences in patterns of AMR across migrant groups and in different settings. METHODS: For this systematic review and meta-analysis, we searched MEDLINE, Embase, PubMed, and Scopus with no language restrictions from Jan 1, 2000, to Jan 18, 2017, for primary data from observational studies reporting antibacterial resistance in common bacterial pathogens among migrants to 21 European Union-15 and European Economic Area countries. To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to report data on carriage or infection with laboratory-confirmed antibiotic-resistant organisms in migrant populations. We extracted data from eligible studies and assessed quality using piloted, standardised forms. We did not examine drug resistance in tuberculosis and excluded articles solely reporting on this parameter. We also excluded articles in which migrant status was determined by ethnicity, country of birth of participants' parents, or was not defined, and articles in which data were not disaggregated by migrant status. Outcomes were carriage of or infection with antibiotic-resistant organisms. We used random-effects models to calculate the pooled prevalence of each outcome. The study protocol is registered with PROSPERO, number CRD42016043681. FINDINGS: We identified 2274 articles, of which 23 observational studies reporting on antibiotic resistance in 2319 migrants were included. The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or AMR infection in migrants was 25·4% (95% CI 19·1-31·8; I2 =98%), including meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (7·8%, 4·8-10·7; I2 =92%) and antibiotic-resistant Gram-negative bacteria (27·2%, 17·6-36·8; I2 =94%). The pooled prevalence of any AMR carriage or infection was higher in refugees and asylum seekers (33·0%, 18·3-47·6; I2 =98%) than in other migrant groups (6·6%, 1·8-11·3; I2 =92%). The pooled prevalence of antibiotic-resistant organisms was slightly higher in high-migrant community settings (33·1%, 11·1-55·1; I2 =96%) than in migrants in hospitals (24·3%, 16·1-32·6; I2 =98%). We did not find evidence of high rates of transmission of AMR from migrant to host populations. INTERPRETATION: Migrants are exposed to conditions favouring the emergence of drug resistance during transit and in host countries in Europe. Increased antibiotic resistance among refugees and asylum seekers and in high-migrant community settings (such as refugee camps and detention facilities) highlights the need for improved living conditions, access to health care, and initiatives to facilitate detection of and appropriate high-quality treatment for antibiotic-resistant infections during transit and in host countries. Protocols for the prevention and control of infection and for antibiotic surveillance need to be integrated in all aspects of health care, which should be accessible for all migrant groups, and should target determinants of AMR before, during, and after migration. FUNDING: UK National Institute for Health Research Imperial Biomedical Research Centre, Imperial College Healthcare Charity, the Wellcome Trust, and UK National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimictobial Resistance at Imperial College London

Complete Structural Model of Escherichia coli RNA Polymerase from a Hybrid Approach

A combination of structural approaches yields a complete atomic model of the highly biochemically characterized Escherichia coli RNA polymerase, enabling fuller exploitation of E. coli as a model for understanding transcription

Identification of Functional Differences in Metabolic Networks Using Comparative Genomics and Constraint-Based Models

Genome-scale network reconstructions are useful tools for understanding cellular metabolism, and comparisons of such reconstructions can provide insight into metabolic differences between organisms. Recent efforts toward comparing genome-scale models have focused primarily on aligning metabolic networks at the reaction level and then looking at differences and similarities in reaction and gene content. However, these reaction comparison approaches are time-consuming and do not identify the effect network differences have on the functional states of the network. We have developed a bilevel mixed-integer programming approach, CONGA, to identify functional differences between metabolic networks by comparing network reconstructions aligned at the gene level. We first identify orthologous genes across two reconstructions and then use CONGA to identify conditions under which differences in gene content give rise to differences in metabolic capabilities. By seeking genes whose deletion in one or both models disproportionately changes flux through a selected reaction (e.g., growth or by-product secretion) in one model over another, we are able to identify structural metabolic network differences enabling unique metabolic capabilities. Using CONGA, we explore functional differences between two metabolic reconstructions of Escherichia coli and identify a set of reactions responsible for chemical production differences between the two models. We also use this approach to aid in the development of a genome-scale model of Synechococcus sp. PCC 7002. Finally, we propose potential antimicrobial targets in Mycobacterium tuberculosis and Staphylococcus aureus based on differences in their metabolic capabilities. Through these examples, we demonstrate that a gene-centric approach to comparing metabolic networks allows for a rapid comparison of metabolic models at a functional level. Using CONGA, we can identify differences in reaction and gene content which give rise to different functional predictions. Because CONGA provides a general framework, it can be applied to find functional differences across models and biological systems beyond those presented here

Genome-Wide Association Study Identifies Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in DYRK1A Associated with Replication of HIV-1 in Monocyte-Derived Macrophages

Background: HIV-1 infected macrophages play an important role in rendering resting T cells permissive for infection, in spreading HIV-1 to T cells, and in the pathogenesis of AIDS dementia. During highly active anti-retroviral treatment (HAART), macrophages keep producing virus because tissue penetration of antiretrovirals is suboptimal and the efficacy of some is reduced. Thus, to cure HIV-1 infection with antiretrovirals we will also need to efficiently inhibit viral replication in macrophages. The majority of the current drugs block the action of viral enzymes, whereas there is an abundance of yet unidentified host factors that could be targeted. We here present results from a genome-wide association study identifying novel genetic polymorphisms that affect in vitro HIV-1 replication in macrophages. Methodology/Principal Findings: Monocyte-derived macrophages from 393 blood donors were infected with HIV-1 and viral replication was determined using Gag p24 antigen levels. Genomic DNA from individuals with macrophages that had relatively low (n = 96) or high (n = 96) p24 production was used for SNP genotyping with the Illumina 610 Quad beadchip. A total of 494,656 SNPs that passed quality control were tested for association with HIV-1 replication in macrophages, using linear regression. We found a strong association between in vitro HIV-1 replication in monocyte-derived macrophages and SNP rs12483205 in DYRK1A (p = 2.16×10-5). While the association was not genome-wide significant (p<1×10-7), we could replicate this association using monocyte-derived macrophages from an independent group of 31 individuals (p = 0.0034). Combined analysis of the initial and replication cohort increased the strength of the association (p = 4.84×10-6). In addition, we found this SNP to be associated with HIV-1 disease progression in vivo in two independent cohort studies (p = 0.035 and p = 0.0048). Conclusions/Significance: These findings suggest that the kinase DYRK1A is involved in the replication of HIV-1, in vitro in macrophages as well as in vivo. © 2011 Bol et al